UK can help as China recovers from pig fever crisis
In May 2018, I visited China for the first time.
The sheer scale of the place is mind-blowing and, with 1.4 billion people for whom pig meat is as central to daily life as tea is to the British, it’s a place to understand if you are in our industry.
About 63 per cent of meat consumed in China is pig meat, and the country houses half of the world’s pigs. Population growth and aspiration to eat more meat means every (and I do mean every!) part of the pig is prized. Cuts we don’t consume in the UK are relished, making for a buoyant export.
I returned to China recently for the World Pork Conference in Chengdu and, in that time, almost a quarter of the world’s pig population has been lost to African swine fever, with China suffering extensive losses. The impact on consumption and trade flow will be staggering over the next few years and will extend to many proteins, not just pork.
While harmless to humans, ASF is deadly to pigs and, with no vaccine currently available and the added difficulty of its control in the wild population, it is likely to be a problem we will need to endure for some time.
As awful as that is, there are opportunities for countries who remain ASF-free to increase exports. UK pig meat exports have already begun rising, which is a bright and welcome ray of light as we deal with challenges in our own domestic market.
While Chinese officials acknowledge there will be a demand gap so large it’s impossible for other countries to span in the short-term, we must not let the light of this opportunity blind us. Mitigating action is already being taken, with the release of strategic stocks to ensure supply and curb price rises.
The Chinese government has announced financial aid, at central and provincial levels, to support production in a bid to rebalance the situation. There are subsidies for breeding herds, more processing plants (to reduce live pig transport distances) and an easing of land, building and environmental restrictions.
Some of these measures, combined with high pig prices, will encourage rejuvenation of back-yard operations, as long as they can find enough sustainable healthy pigs.
The big question is, how long will it take for China to recover? Estimates range from a very optimistic one year, through to five years and beyond. In reality, the time it takes will be governed by the balance of power between ASF itself and the effectiveness of the counter measures.
However long it takes, there may be the legacy of a profound, and possibly sustained, change in diet. Alternative proteins have already come into play, with consumption of beef, lamb, fish and sea foods all rising. Will this change future eating habits?
Angela Christison is strategy director, AHDB Pork
